A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
